Substantial increase in stillbirth rate during the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar

The Lancet

BackgroundThe Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.MethodsTo estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and …

The Lancet Neurology

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years …

The Lancet Regional Health-Southeast Asia

BackgroundA nuanced understanding of the health needs of adolescents in the context of the India Adolescent Health Strategy (IAHS) is needed to inform policy interventions for improving the health and well-being of adolescents in India.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we identified the top ten causes of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) disaggregated by sex and age group (10–14 and 15–19 years) for India and its states in 2019. To inform the IAHS of refinement or expansion in focus needed to improve adolescent health in India, we reviewed the extent to which the top 10 causes of disease burden are addressed in the IAHS, and the availability of and age- and sex-disaggregation in the service utilisation data for adolescents captured in the Adolescent Friendly Health Clinic monitoring …

The Lancet Neurology

BackgroundSpinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsUsing GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.FindingsGlobally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2 …

Allergy

Background Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age‐standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio‐demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body …

JAMA oncology

ImportanceLip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.ObjectiveTo analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence ReviewThe incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.FindingsIn 2019, 370 000 (95 …

Lancet

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence.METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance.FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3· 0 million deaths and 30· 0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288· 4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children …

The Lancet Rheumatology

BackgroundOsteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050.MethodsIn this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip …

The Lancet Rheumatology

BackgroundLow back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021.MethodsPopulation-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was …

The Lancet

BackgroundDiabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.MethodsEstimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and …

The Lancet Regional Health-Southeast Asia

BackgroundDespite the evidence on the poor quality of antenatal care (ANC) services, significant gap remains in the understanding of quality-adjusted coverage at the population-level for each ANC visit and by the source of ANC services, and in equity in this coverage.MethodsAll births between July 2020 and June 2021 were listed from 261,124 households (91.5% participation) representative of the Bihar state. Mothers of all stillbirths and neonatal deaths, and of 25% random sample of livebirths who survived the neonatal period provided data on each ANC visit up to a maximum of first 4 ANC visits, including the source of ANC services and the services received (weight measurement, blood pressure checked, abdomen checked, urine sample taken, and blood sample taken). An ANC visit was deemed of quality if all of these services were received in that visit. We report the coverage of quality-adjusted ANC …

The Lancet Neurology

BackgroundAlthough meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.MethodsWe modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health …

The Lancet Global Health

Background The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending …

The Lancet diabetes & endocrinology

BackgroundDiabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability …

The Lancet

BackgroundThe health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.MethodsFor this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the …

The Lancet

BackgroundHuman resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.MethodsThrough the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of …

The lancet Gastroenterology & hepatology

BackgroundCombating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.MethodsThe primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV …

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 …

The Lancet Psychiatry

BackgroundThe mental disorders included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, eating disorders, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYS), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for mental disorders from 1990 to 2019.MethodsIn this study, we assessed prevalence and burden estimates from GBD 2019 for 12 mental disorders, males and females, 23 age groups, 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs to premature mortality. We systematically reviewed …

BMJ Global Health

Introduction Evidence suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdown policies, restriction of movement and physical distancing to control the novel COVID-19 contributed to the decline in utilisation of essential health services. We explored healthcare providers’ and policy-makers’ experiences of the barriers, interventions and response actions that contributed to ensuring the continuity of essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ghana to help inform future practice and policy.Methods We used a qualitative study approach. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Thirty Four participants composed of 20 healthcare providers and 14 policy-makers who worked across regions with low and high recorded COVID-19 cases in Ghana during the COVID-19 pandemic were involved in this study.Results Participants reported that essential health services including maternal …

BMJ global health

IntroductionAntivenom is a lifesaving medicine for treating snakebite envenoming, yet there has been a crisis in antivenom supply for many decades. Despite this, substantial quantities of antivenom stocks expire before use. This study has investigated whether expired antivenoms retain preclinical quality and efficacy, with the rationale that they could be used in emergency situations when in-date antivenom is unavailable.MethodsUsing WHO guidelines and industry test requirements, we examined the in vitro stability and murine in vivo efficacy of eight batches of the sub-Saharan African antivenom, South African Institute for Medical Research polyvalent, that had expired at various times over a period of 30 years.ResultsWe demonstrate modest declines in immunochemical stability, with antivenoms older than 25 years having high levels of turbidity. In vitro preclinical analysis demonstrated all expired antivenoms …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionNeglected diseases are a significant global health challenge. Encouraging the development of therapeutics and vaccines for these diseases would address an important unmet medical need. We propose a priority review voucher programme for the European Union (EU). The developer of a drug or vaccine for a neglected disease would receive a voucher for accelerated assessment of a different product at the European Medicines Agency (EMA).MethodsThis study uses retrospective observational data to estimate the potential commercial value of the proposed voucher programme using a five-step approach: (1) estimating the time saved in the EMA accelerated regulatory review; (2) gauging time reductions in accelerated pricing and reimbursement decisions by EU member states; (3) selecting 10 high-revenue products launched between 2015 and 2020 representing typical voucher users; (4 …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionMusculoskeletal disorders, experienced as joint pain, are a significant global health problem, but little is known about how joint pain is categorised and understood in Tanzania. Understanding existing conceptualisations of and responses to joint pain is important to ensure both research and interventions are equitable and avoid biomedical imposition.MethodsRapid ethnographic appraisal was conducted in a periurban and rural community in Kilimanjaro, documenting language used to describe joint pain, ideas about causes, understandings of who experiences such pain, the impacts pain has and how people respond to it. We conducted 66 interviews with community leaders, traditional healers, community members and pharmacists.Photographs were taken and included in fieldnotes to supplement the interview data and develop thick descriptions. Data were analysed by constant comparison using …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionTo examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.MethodsTotal, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015–2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015–2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.ResultsExcess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales …

BMJ Global Health

BackgroundResearch and development (R&D) of new drugs and regimens against tuberculosis (TB) is evolving to meet new challenges and face limited investments in the sector. To effectively improve and fill existing gaps, researchers and trialists should engage a broad spectrum of stakeholders. With this study, we aim to map the interests in TB R&D raised by the main stakeholders in the TB field.MethodsWe conducted semistructured, short interviews to gather insight and viewpoints on innovation on TB drugs and regimens R&D of policy-makers, national TB programme officers, donors, funders, non-governmental organisations and research institutions.A composite measure of the relevance of topics that emerged was computed by implementing different models considering the importance for researchers and the urgency to implement those changes during the trial, the number of citations each topic received …

BMJ Global Health

Climate change is an increasing threat to the health of populations in Africa, with a shift in seasonal temperatures towards more extreme heat exposures. In Burkina Faso, like other countries in the Sahel, many women have little protection against exposure to high temperatures, either outside or inside the home or place of work. This paper investigates how women perceive the impacts of heat on their physical and mental health, in addition to their social relationships and economic activities. Qualitative methods (in-depth interviews and focus group discussions) were conducted with women, community representatives and healthcare professionals in two regions in Burkina Faso. A thematic analysis was used to explore the realities of participants’ experiences and contextual perspectives in relation to heat. Our research shows extreme temperatures have a multifaceted impact on pregnant women, mothers and …

BMJ Global Health

INTRODUCTION Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) encompass traumatic events that occur before the age of 18. There is a consensus among scholars that ACEs are broadly categorised into abuse, neglect, and household dysfunction, and further into 10 distinct subtypes (eg, physical abuse, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, physical neglect, emotional neglect, parent with mental illness, incarcerated relative/family members, parental substance abuse, mother treated violently and parental divorce). 1 2 ACEs pose a significant risk for further physical, mental, social and economic disadvantage. In many countries, a clear dose–response relationship exists between ACEs score and mental illness, addiction, poor diet, medication non-adherence, utilisation of health services and chronic morbidity throughout one’s lifespan. 1 2 During childhood, exposure to multiple ACEs is associated with delayed brain and …

BMJ Global Health

This manuscript describes the process and impact of strengthening the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO)’s COVID-19 vaccination information system. This system plays a critical role in tracking vaccination coverage, guiding resource allocation and supporting vaccination campaign roll-out for countries in the African region. Recognising existing data management issues, including complex reporting prone to human error, compromised data quality and underutilisation of collected data, WHO AFRO introduced significant system improvements during the COVID-19 pandemic. These improvements include shifting from an Excel-based to an online Azure-based data collection system, automating data processing and validation, and expansion of collected data. These changes have led to improvements in data quality and quantity including a decrease in data non-validity, missingness, and record duplication …

BMJ Global Health

BackgroundGlobal tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance (DR) surveillance focuses on rifampicin. We examined the potential of public and surveillance Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data, to generate expanded country-level resistance prevalence estimates (antibiograms) using in silico resistance prediction.MethodsWe curated and quality-controlled Mtb WGS data. We used a validated random forest model to predict phenotypic resistance to 12 drugs and bias-corrected for model performance, outbreak sampling and rifampicin resistance oversampling. Validation leveraged a national DR survey conducted in South Africa.ResultsMtb isolates from 29 countries (n=19 149) met sequence quality criteria. Global marginal genotypic resistance among mono-resistant TB estimates overlapped with the South African DR survey, except for isoniazid, ethionamide and second-line …

BMJ Global Health

Introduction Evidence suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdown policies, restriction of movement and physical distancing to control the novel COVID-19 contributed to the decline in utilisation of essential health services. We explored healthcare providers’ and policy-makers’ experiences of the barriers, interventions and response actions that contributed to ensuring the continuity of essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ghana to help inform future practice and policy.Methods We used a qualitative study approach. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Thirty Four participants composed of 20 healthcare providers and 14 policy-makers who worked across regions with low and high recorded COVID-19 cases in Ghana during the COVID-19 pandemic were involved in this study.Results Participants reported that essential health services including maternal …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionEquitable access to vaccines for migrants and refugees is necessary to ensure their right to health and to achieve public health goals of reducing vaccine-preventable illness. Public health policies require regulatory frameworks and communication to effect uptake of effective vaccines among the target population. In Colombia, the National COVID-19 Vaccination Plan implicitly included Venezuelan refugees and migrants; however, initial communication of the policy indicated that vaccine availability was restricted to people with regular migration status. We estimated the impact of a public announcement, which clarified access for refugees and migrants, on vaccination coverage among Venezuelans living in Colombia.MethodsBetween 30 July 2021 and 5 February 2022, 6221 adult Venezuelans participated in a cross-sectional, population-based health survey. We used a comparative cross-sectional time …

BMJ Global Health

BackgroundThe scale-up of parenting programmes to support early childhood development (ECD) is poorly understood. Little is known about how and when early interventions are most effective. Sustainability of ECD programming requires a better understanding of the mechanisms of real-world interventions. We examined the effects on caregiving practices of Primeira Infância Melhor (PIM), a state-wide home-visiting programme in Brazil.MethodsThis propensity score matched, longitudinal, quasiexperimental study uses data from the 2015 Pelotas Birth Cohort. We matched children who received PIM at any age with other cohort children on 25 key covariates. Sensitivity, guidance and responsiveness were assessed using video-recorded play tasks. Coerciveness and the parent–child relationship were assessed using the Parenting and Family Adjustment Scales. All parenting outcomes were examined at age 4 …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic had large impacts on mental health; however, most existing evidence is focused on the initial lockdown period and high-income contexts. By assessing trajectories of mental health symptoms in India over 2 years, we aim to understand the effect of later time periods and pandemic characteristics on mental health in a lower-middle income context.MethodsWe used data from the Real-Time Insights of COVID-19 in India cohort study (N=3709). We used covariate-adjusted linear regression models with generalised estimating equations to assess associations between mental health (Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4) score; range 0–12) and pandemic periods as well as pandemic characteristics (COVID-19 cases and deaths, government stringency, self-reported financial impact, COVID-19 infection in the household) and explored effect modification by age, gender and rural …

BMJ Global Health

BackgroundThe development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data.MethodsWe developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates …

BMJ Global Health

On 31 December 2019, the Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases. On 5 January 2020, the WHO publicly released a Disease Outbreak News (DON) report, providing information about the pneumonia cases, implemented response interventions, and WHO’s risk assessment and advice on public health and social measures. Following 9 additional DON reports and 209 daily situation reports, on 17 August 2020, WHO published the first edition of the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (WEU). On 1 September 2023, the 158th edition of the WEU was published on WHO’s website, marking its final issue. Since then, the WEU has been replaced by comprehensive global epidemiological updates on COVID-19 released every 4 weeks. During the span of its publication, the webpage that hosts the WEU and the COVID-19 Operational Updates was accessed …

BMJ Global Health

Introduction Evidence suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdown policies, restriction of movement and physical distancing to control the novel COVID-19 contributed to the decline in utilisation of essential health services. We explored healthcare providers’ and policy-makers’ experiences of the barriers, interventions and response actions that contributed to ensuring the continuity of essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ghana to help inform future practice and policy.Methods We used a qualitative study approach. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Thirty Four participants composed of 20 healthcare providers and 14 policy-makers who worked across regions with low and high recorded COVID-19 cases in Ghana during the COVID-19 pandemic were involved in this study.Results Participants reported that essential health services including maternal …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionTo examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.MethodsTotal, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015–2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015–2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.ResultsExcess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales …

BMJ Global Health

IntroductionAs people living with HIV (PLHIV) are experiencing longer survival, the co-occurrence of HIV and non-communicable diseases has become a public health priority. In response to this emerging challenge, we aimed to characterise the spatial structure of convergence of chronic health conditions in an HIV hyperendemic community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, we used data from a comprehensive population-based disease survey conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which collected data on HIV, diabetes and hypertension. We implemented a novel health needs scale to categorise participants as: diagnosed and well-controlled (Needs Score 1), diagnosed and suboptimally controlled (Score 2), diagnosed but not engaged in care (Score 3) or undiagnosed and uncontrolled (Score 4). Scores 2–4 were indicative of unmet health needs. We explored the …

BMJ Global Health

BackgroundGlobal tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance (DR) surveillance focuses on rifampicin. We examined the potential of public and surveillance Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data, to generate expanded country-level resistance prevalence estimates (antibiograms) using in silico resistance prediction.MethodsWe curated and quality-controlled Mtb WGS data. We used a validated random forest model to predict phenotypic resistance to 12 drugs and bias-corrected for model performance, outbreak sampling and rifampicin resistance oversampling. Validation leveraged a national DR survey conducted in South Africa.ResultsMtb isolates from 29 countries (n=19 149) met sequence quality criteria. Global marginal genotypic resistance among mono-resistant TB estimates overlapped with the South African DR survey, except for isoniazid, ethionamide and second-line …