Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

This concise, user-friendly book provides an accessible guide for anyone wishing to pursue an epidemiological study. It provides the essential tools to understand what epidemiology is, how to choose the correct observational study design for a research question, and how to collect or access data to conduct the study. The book begins by considering, in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the importance of epidemiological studies, as well as highlighting key issues such as bias, causality and ethics. There are then chapters on the different types of observational epidemiological studies possible, including case studies, ecological and mixed methods, and the data sources available to researchers. Following this, and central to the book, is step-by-step case study on how to conduct a cross-sectional project. Concluding by guiding readers from conducting the research to publishing its findings, this is the ideal companion to …

American journal of psychiatry

ObjectiveThe authors investigated the clinical outcomes of commonly used antidepressants among older adults who initiated first-time antidepressants for depression by analyzing the 1-year risk of selected clinically relevant outcomes.MethodsThis cohort study used nationwide Danish registry data and included all older adults who redeemed a first-time (since 1995) antidepressant prescription with an indication of depression between 2006 and 2017. Only the 10 most frequently redeemed antidepressants were included in the analyses. Outcomes included discontinuation, switching, augmentation, psychiatric hospital contacts, suicide attempt or self-harm, fall-related injuries, cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression models, controlling for potential confounders.ResultsThe study sample included 93,883 older …

Phenotypic analysis of global and tissue-specific genetically modified mouse models of the 25-hydroxyvitamin D-1α-hydroxylase and of the 25-hydroxyvitamin D-24-hydroxylase enzyme, which synthesizes and degrades the active vitamin D form, 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D, of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) and of vitamin D target genes has facilitated the study of the vitamin D system in vivo and ex vivo under controlled conditions. It has been possible to distinguish effects on skeletal and mineral homeostasis from extraskeletal actions, to distinguish direct endocrine and/or paracrine/autocrine effects of the vitamin D system versus indirect effects mediated by calcium and phosphate, to examine the temporal actions of the vitamin D system, and to identify ligand-independent effects of the VDR. Results from the studies with genetically modified animals can also point to appropriate directions to examine the role of vitamin D …

Age and Ageing

Background In-hospital delirium is associated with adverse outcomes and is underdiagnosed, limiting research and clinical follow-up. Objective To compare the incidence of in-hospital delirium determined by chart-based review of electronic medical records (D-CBR) with delirium discharge diagnoses (D-DD). Furthermore, to identify differences in symptoms, treatments and delirium triggers between D-CBR and D-DD. Method The community-based cohort included 2,115 participants in the Hordaland Health Study born between 1925 and 1927. Between 2018 and 2022, we retrospectively reviewed hospital electronic medical records from baseline (1997–99) until death prior to 2023. D-DD and D-CBR were validated using The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, criteria for delirium. Results Of the 2,115 …

Louvain médical

L’année 2023 a permis de voir un certain nombre d’avancées significatives dans la compréhension et le traitement des maladies rénales. Parmi celles-ci, les découvertes concernant les variants génétiques dans le gène codant pour l’Apolipoproteine L1 ont été étroitement associées à un risque accru de développer une maladie rénale chronique, en particulier chez les populations d’ascendance africaine ou afro-américaine. Les mécanismes précis par lesquels ces variants APO-L1 contribuent au développement des maladies rénales ne sont pas entièrement élucidés, mais diverses études suggèrent qu’elles pourraient entraîner une altération de la fonction des podocytes au niveau glomérulaire. La découverte des liens entre les anomalies APO-L1 et des pathologies rénales a ouvert de nouvelles perspectives de recherche et de développement de thérapies ciblées. Comprendre comment ces variants génétiques influencent la progression des maladies rénales pourrait également permettre le développement de stratégies de prévention et de traitement plus efficaces, ainsi que l’identification de sous-groupes de patients à risque plus élevé. Une nouvelle approche thérapeutique de l’anémie liée à la maladie rénale chronique est disponible depuis cette année. Le roxadustat (EvrenzoR) appartient à une classe de médicaments appelée ‘inhibiteur de l’Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) prolyl hydroxylase’. Cette classe de médicaments agit sur l’érythropoièse HIF-dépendante. Contrairement aux traitements traditionnels de l’anémie associée à la maladie rénale par les injections sous-cutanées ou intraveineuses d’érythropoiétine (EPO …

Journal of Renal Nutrition

ObjectiveA plant-based diet has both antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Therefore, it is hypothesized that adherence to a plant-based diet may have a positive effect on kidney function. The study aimed to determine the association between the plant-based diet index (PDI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD).MethodsThis cross-sectional analysis used information from the Ravansar noncommunicable diseases cohort study, which included 9,746 participants between the ages of 35 and 65. By measuring the estimation glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with the modification of diet in the renal disease equation, CKD was determined. Using a food frequency questionnaire, the PDI was computed based on food intake. To determine odds ratios (ORs), multivariable logistic regression models were utilized.Results1,058 (10.86%) participants had CKD (eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and the mean PDI was 54.22 ± 6 …

Nutrition Journal

BackgroundDietary patterns, encompassing an overall view of individuals’ dietary intake, are suggested as a suitable means of assessing nutrition’s role in chronic disease development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) designed for use in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN), by comparing major dietary patterns assessed by the FFQ with a reference method.MethodsStudy participants included men and women who enrolled in the PERSIAN Cohort Study at seven of the eighteen centers. These centers were chosen to include dietary variations observed among the different Iranian ethnic populations. Two FFQ were completed for each participant over a one-year study period (FFQ1 upon enrollment and FFQ2 at the end of the study), with 24 interviewer-administered 24-hour dietary recalls (24 h) being …

Brazilian Guidelines for In-office and Out-of-office Blood Pressure Measurement 2023 | PREPRINT-SCIELO loading 1 2 3 +A A -A 3.Brazilian Guidelines for In-office and Out-of-office Blood Pressure Measurement 2023 This article is a Preprint Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment. Brazilian Guidelines for In-office and Out-of-office Blood Pressure Measurement 2023 / Diretrizes Brasileiras de Medidas da Pressão Arterial Dentro e Fora do …

New England Journal of Medicine

Background Most trials that have shown a benefit of beta-blocker treatment after myocardial infarction included patients with large myocardial infarctions and were conducted in an era before modern biomarker-based diagnosis of myocardial infarction and treatment with percutaneous coronary intervention, antithrombotic agents, high-intensity statins, and renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system antagonists. Methods In a parallel-group, open-label trial performed at 45 centers in Sweden, Estonia, and New Zealand, we randomly assigned patients with an acute myocardial infarction who had undergone coronary angiography and had a left ventricular ejection fraction of at least 50% to receive either long-term treatment with a beta-blocker (metoprolol or bisoprolol) or no beta-blocker treatment. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or new myocardial infarction. Results From September …

European Journal of Pediatrics

Early-life onset of high blood pressure is associated with the development of cardiovascular diseases in adulthood. In adolescents, limited evidence exists regarding the association between adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MedDiet) and normal blood pressure (BP) levels, as well as its potential to modulate genetic predisposition to HTN. This study investigated the interaction between a MedDiet score and a recently developed HTN-genetic risk score (HTN-GRS) on blood pressure levels in a European adolescent cohort. The MedDiet score was derived from two non-consecutive 24-h dietary recalls and ranged from 0 (indicating low adherence) to 9 (indicating high adherence). Multiple linear regression models, adjusted for covariates, were employed to examine the relationship between the MedDiet score and BP z-scores and to assess the interaction effects between the MedDiet score and HTN-GRS on BP z …

BMC geriatrics

Background and objectiveConsidering the importance of diabetes and its increased prevalence with aging, this study aimed to evaluate the association between diabetes status and quality of life (QOL) and the determining factors in individuals over 60.MethodsTwo thousand three hundred seventy-five individuals including 819 (34.5%) with diabetes, aged 69.4 ± 6.4, from Bushehr Elderly Health Program (BEHP) were enrolled. We categorized the participants as non-diabetic, controlled diabetic, and poorly controlled diabetic. The QOL was assessed using the SF-12 questionnaire. The physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summaries of QOL were estimated. We compared the SF-12 domains and components between the categories using ANOVA. Further, the association of diabetes status with PCS and MCS was assessed after adjustment for possible confounders including age, sex, depression …

Open Heart

BackgroundHigh blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Adequate treatment of high BP should reduce the risk of CVD, but this association has seldom been assessed in a general population setting.MethodsPopulation-based prospective study conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland, with a follow-up between 2003 and 2021. Participants were categorised as normal BP, untreated high BP, treated and uncontrolled BP and treated and controlled BP. Total and CVD mortality as well as any CVD event were assessed.Results5341 participants (65% normal, 17.4% untreated, 8.8% treated and uncontrolled and 8.8% treated and controlled) were included. After a median follow-up of 14 years (IQR: 11–15), 575 CVD events occurred. Relative to participants with normal BP, multivariable-adjusted HRs (and 95% CI) for total CVD were 1.38 (1.11 to 1.72) for untreated, 1.35 (1.04 to 1.76) for …

BMC Public Health

BackgroundGood food safety practices are essential to minimizing foodborne diseases. The present study explored the food safety-related practices of residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in Southwest China and identified the impacting factors.MethodsResidents aged 18–75 years from Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Chongqing, China, were included in our study. The convenience sampling method was used to select participants, and face-to-face surveys were conducted in households and communities to collect data. Descriptive statistics including sociodemographic characteristics of respondents and weighted percentages were obtained and the log-binomial regression was used to evaluate the influencing factors associated with food safety-related practices.ResultsOverall, 7,848 respondents were involved, with 97.5% efficacy. Disparities in food safety-related practices were observed between males and …

Journal of Crohn's and Colitis

Background Environmental chemical exposures are increasingly acknowledged as risk factors for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a large class of persistent fluorinated organic chemicals, widely used in the modern environment, may be implicated in IBD etiology, but data are conflicting. Methods We investigated the association of PFAS mixture concentrations in pre-diagnostic serum with adult-onset IBD in a pilot study within the pre-clinical Proteomic Evaluation and Discovery in an IBD Cohort of Tri-service Subjects (PREDICTS) study. This is a nested case-control study of military personnel with Crohn’s disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), and age-, sex-, and race-matched healthy controls with serum samples obtained at four-time points 1-10 years prior to IBD diagnosis. Using untargeted liquid-chromatography high-resolution …

Kidney International Reports

IntroductionBlood pressure (BP) is a highly heritable trait with over 2000 underlying genomic loci identified to date. Although the kidney plays a key role, little is known about specific cell types involved in the genetic regulation of BP.MethodsHere, we applied stratified linkage disequilibrium score (LDSC) regression to connect BP genome-wide association studies (GWAS) results to specific cell types of the mature human kidney. We used the largest single-stage BP genome-wide analysis to date, including up to 1,028,980 adults of European ancestry, and single-cell transcriptomic data from 14 mature human kidneys, with mean age of 41 years.ResultsOur analyses prioritized myofibroblasts and endothelial cells, among the total of 33 annotated cell type, as specifically involved in BP regulation (P < 0.05/33, i.e., 0.001515). Enrichment of heritability for systolic BP (SBP) was observed in myofibroblast cells in mature …

medRxiv

To better understand sex differences in human health and disease, we conducted a systematic, large-scale investigation of sex differences in the genetic regulation of the plasma proteome (>5,000 targets), including their disease relevance. Plasma levels of two-thirds of protein targets differed significantly by sex. In contrast, genetic effects on protein targets were remarkably similar, with very few protein quantitative loci (pQTLs, n=74) showing significant sex-differential effects (for 3.9% and 0.3% of protein targets from antibody- and aptamer-based platforms, respectively). Most of these 74 pQTLs represented directionally concordant effects significant in both sexes, with only 21 pQTLs showing evidence of sexual dimorphism, i.e. effects restricted to one sex (n=20) or with opposite directions between sexes (n=1 for CDH15). None of the sex-differential pQTLs translated into sex-differential disease risk. Our results demonstrate strong similarity in the genetic regulation of the plasma proteome between sexes with important implications for genetically guided drug target discovery and validation.

The Lancet

2 Emanuel EJ, Persad G. The shared ethical framework to allocate scarce medical resources: a lesson from COVID-19. Lancet 2023; 401: 1892–902. 3 Emanuel EJ, Persad G, Upshur R, et al. Fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of COVID-19. N Engl J Med 2020; 382: 2049–55. 4 Kinder M. Essential but undervalued: millions of health-care workers aren’t getting the pay or respect they deserve in the COVID-19 pandemic. May 28, 2020. https://www. brookings. edu/research/essential-but-undervalued-millionsof-health-care-workers-arent-getting-the-payor-respect-they-deserve-in-the-covid-19-pandemic (accessed June 2, 2023). 5 Clapp JT. Keeping bioethics concrete: how social scientific research generates values.

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundUnderweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.MethodsWe used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundUnderweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.MethodsWe used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …

The Lancet

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and …

The Lancet

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational …

The Lancet

BackgroundDetailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are …

The Lancet

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 …